Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
